When Venezuela’s government dropped a 48-hour ultimatum on international airlines, it wasn’t just about flights—it was a high-stakes gamble to break its own isolation. On Monday, November 24, 2025, officials demanded carriers like Iberia, TAP Air Portugal, LATAM Airlines, and Turkish Airlines resume service to Simón Bolívar International Airport in Caracas by 11:59 PM UTC on Wednesday, November 26, or face permanent revocation of their airspace access. The move came just days after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a rare safety alert, warning pilots to exercise extreme caution over Venezuela’s Maiquetía Flight Information Region due to escalating military activity. And here’s the twist: while foreign airlines fled, Venezuelan carriers like Conviasa and Copa Airlines kept flying—making Venezuela’s threat feel less like a negotiation and more like a desperate bluff.
Why the FAA Pulled the Plug
The FAA’s November 21, 2025, NOTAM didn’t mince words. It cited "heightened military activity" and confirmed U.S. fighter jets and bombers had been flying through the region with transponders off—a move that, in civilian airspace, is a ticking time bomb. The agency didn’t say Venezuela was targeting airliners, but it warned that Russian-made Su-30MK2 jets and S-300VM missile systems stationed nearby could turn a civilian flight into a tragedy with a single misjudgment. The alert, valid until February 28, 2026, also extended to Curaçao and Puerto Rico, though only Venezuela saw mass cancellations. Why? Because the U.S. military buildup in Puerto Rico—where General Daniel R. Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was reportedly coordinating Operation Southern Spear—created a corridor that felt more like a rehearsal than a coincidence.Who’s Still Flying—and Who’s Not
The list of suspended airlines reads like a who’s who of transatlantic and Latin American carriers: Air Europa, Plus Ultra, GOL, Avianca—all grounded. But Venezuela’s own airlines? They kept going. Conviasa, Laser Airlines, and Avior Airlines maintained routes to Aruba, Curaçao, and Miami. And crucially, Copa Airlines’s daily flight from Caracas to Panama City—the regional hub for Latin American travel—remained operational. That’s not just a lifeline; it’s a loophole. If you want to get to Venezuela now, you fly through Panama, not Madrid or Istanbul.IATA’s Warning: A Country on the Edge
The International Air Transportation Association (IATA) didn’t hold back. In a statement released November 25, Director General Willie Walsh called Venezuela’s ultimatum "a dangerous escalation" that could deepen the country’s isolation. "They’re trying to force airlines back into a dangerous environment," Walsh said. "This isn’t a business decision—it’s a political hostage situation." IATA represents 83% of global air traffic, and its condemnation carries weight. No airline has publicly signaled compliance. Not one. And with the FAA alert still active, even the most desperate carrier is unlikely to risk passenger safety—or a lawsuit—for a government that’s lost credibility on the world stage.
The Military Shadow Game
The timing isn’t random. Between November 20 and 24, General Daniel R. Caine arrived in Puerto Rico, where U.S. bases like Roosevelt Roads and Camp Santiago have seen their largest troop surge in years. Satellite imagery analyzed by Venezuela Analysis showed increased radar activity, drone patrols, and fighter jet rotations—all pointing toward a potential rapid-response posture. The FAA’s alert, while framed as safety-driven, clearly aligns with this buildup. Venezuela claims the U.S. is provoking it. The U.S. denies any offensive intent. But the fact that American bombers flew without transponders in Venezuelan airspace? That’s not a mistake. It’s a message: We can be here without warning. And if you try to shoot us down, you’ll be the one answering for it.What This Means for Venezuela
For ordinary Venezuelans, the flight suspensions are devastating. Families are cut off from relatives abroad. Medical evacuations stall. Tourism, already a shadow of its former self, is now nearly nonexistent. The country’s air connectivity has dropped by over 80% since 2019. Now, with the threat of permanent revocation, even the hope of a comeback fades. The government’s hope, as reported by Paddleyourownkanoo.com, is that one airline will cave—just one—and the rest will follow, fearing they’ll lose market share. But airlines aren’t stupid. They’ve seen this movie before: in 2019, when Venezuela banned foreign carriers over debt disputes, the result was economic collapse—not a revival. This time, they’re not just risking profit. They’re risking lives.
Public Opinion in the U.S.: A Clear Red Line
And then there’s the American public. A CBS News/YouGov poll released November 24, 2025—surveying 2,200 adults with a ±2.1% margin of error—found that 70% of Americans oppose any military action against Venezuela. Only 15% support it. Even among Republicans, support hovered below 25%. That’s significant. Because while former President Donald J. Trump reportedly considered options for direct intervention, the political cost is now too high. The American public doesn’t want another quagmire in Latin America. And with inflation, border issues, and domestic unrest dominating headlines, Venezuela is a distraction no politician can afford.What’s Next?
The deadline—November 26, 2025—has passed with silence. No airline resumed service. No new FAA updates. No diplomatic breakthrough. Venezuela’s government now faces a stark choice: back down and admit defeat, or double down and risk further global condemnation. Meanwhile, the FAA alert remains active until February 2026. If military activity doesn’t de-escalate, the alert could become permanent. That would mean Caracas becomes a black hole in global aviation—not just politically, but physically. And in a world where air travel is still the lifeline of globalization, that’s a fate no country wants.Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the FAA issue a safety alert for Venezuela’s airspace?
The FAA issued the alert on November 21, 2025, after detecting U.S. military aircraft flying with transponders off inside Venezuela’s Maiquetía Flight Information Region, creating collision risks. It also cited Venezuela’s recent military exercises and its possession of Russian-made Su-30MK2 jets and S-300VM missile systems capable of downing civilian planes—even though no intent to target airliners was observed.
Which airlines are still flying to Venezuela?
Only Venezuelan carriers and Copa Airlines remain active. Conviasa, Avior, Laser, and Estelar operate flights to Aruba, Curaçao, and Miami. Copa Airlines continues its daily route from Caracas to Panama City, the only major international connection still open. All other major carriers, including Iberia, LATAM, and Turkish Airlines, have suspended service.
What happens if an airline ignores Venezuela’s ultimatum?
Venezuela claims it will permanently revoke their authorization to fly through its airspace. But since most airlines don’t rely on Venezuelan airspace for international routes—especially with the FAA alert active—the threat lacks real teeth. No airline has ever been forced to comply with such a demand under a safety alert, and international aviation law prioritizes safety over political coercion.
How has Venezuela’s air connectivity changed since 2019?
Since 2019, Venezuela has lost over 80% of its international air routes due to economic collapse, sanctions, and safety concerns. Before the 2025 FAA alert, only 12 international destinations remained accessible. Now, with most carriers grounded, only Panama City remains reliably connected. This isolation severely impacts medical access, tourism, and family reunification for millions of Venezuelans abroad.
Is there a chance the FAA will lift its alert?
The FAA’s alert is currently valid until February 28, 2026. It will only be lifted if U.S. officials confirm reduced military activity and no further unauthorized flights in Venezuelan airspace. As of late November 2025, no such improvement has been observed. The presence of U.S. bombers and Venezuela’s missile systems means the alert will likely remain unless diplomatic talks begin.
What role is IATA playing in this crisis?
IATA has publicly condemned Venezuela’s ultimatum, calling it a threat to global aviation safety and stability. While it doesn’t enforce regulations, IATA’s influence is immense—it represents 83% of global air traffic. Its stance signals to airlines that complying with Venezuela’s demand would violate industry norms and potentially expose them to liability if an incident occurs.